Biweekly Headlines 2023.6 W3-4

“Crypto will become the native currency of AI.”  – Robby Yung, the CEO of Animoca Brands

Biweekly News Roundup

The crypto market in the past two weeks is still driven by the ongoing Binance SEC lawsuit and its subsequent repercussions, such as Binance.US losing banking access, and Binance retiring users in the UK and the Netherlands markets for regulatory reasons. On a positive note, major giants such as BlackRock, Invesco, WisdomTree, and Fidelity have sought approval for Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) products and secure exchange services, contributing to the overall market growth. Bloomberg predicts a very high likelihood of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF application being approved.

The U.S. Court sanctioned an accord on June 17th between the crypto exchanges Binance.US and Binance, along with the SEC, thereby revoking the erstwhile Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) that imposed a freeze on all Binance.US assets. Exclusive access to client funds will be granted to Binance.US personnel only for the duration of the pending lawsuit. Binance quit the Netherlands after failing to acquire license and also withdrew its registration with a Cyprus regulator. U.K.’s top financial regulator has canceled several permissions given to crypto exchange Binance’s U.K. unit at the company’s request. The UK crypto and stablecoin rules receive royal assent, passing into law.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the Fed’s consensus on further interest rate hikes this year at the 2023 ECB Central Bank Forum on June 28. The Bank of England surprised markets with a 50 basis point hike to interest rates, its 13th consecutive increase as policymakers grapple with persistently high inflation amid a record plunge in business activity as inflation and interest rates in Europe continue to rise.

With its latest suits against Binance and Coinbase, the SEC now labels at least 68 cryptocurrencies as securities, affecting over $100 billion worth of tokens on the market and helping Bitcoin’s dominance growth. With Bitcoin reaching 50% market dominance for the first time since April 2021, BTC rose 88% in the first half of 2023, Significantly outperforming traditional risk assets, the current short Bitcoin position has reached a new low since August 2022. Bitcoin topped $30,000 for the second time this year, hitting its highest level since mid-April, and open interest has soared to $11B, the highest in more than a year. Bitcoin, ether and stablecoins together account for 80% of the $1.1T crypto market cap, the highest level since February 2021.

Predicting that Bitcoin is gearing up for a seasonal bull run, the price of Bitcoin tends to rebound in July. Pushing forward three years, the market’s return on investment in July was +27%, +20% and +24% respectively. Over the past ten years, the Bitcoin price has rebounded on average +11% in July, with 7 out of 10 observations showing a positive return (70%). Summer tends to be a period of consolidation for Bitcoin, with strong markets in July often followed by choppy August and sell-offs in September. Argentina, Venezuela, and Lebanon saw BTC hit its highest-ever levels against local currencies, Cointelegraph reported on June 25.

June 30, 2023

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